000 AXNT20 KNHC 240547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25N CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 11W-20W AND S OF 2N W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/HAZE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO E LOUISIANA GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO FRESH SE SURFACE FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 80W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 79W. BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM A 1038 MB HIGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH 32N72W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1013 MB LOW IS ABOUT 300 NM N OF PUERTO RICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 27N67W TO 30N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N72W WITH A DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. THIS IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE LOW/TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 24N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N53W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 51W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THIS UPPER LOW AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 40W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE LOW N OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE S BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE N BAHAMAS MON AND MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW