000 AXNT20 KNHC 231752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 09W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 35W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC REGION NEAR 30N78W ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 07N40W TO 10N55W THEN ALONG 10N TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 80W. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE PROVIDING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF 13N BETWEEN 62W-72W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS LOCATED WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 79W-83W AND SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 72W-75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION ALONG 32N74W TO NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND E-NE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...A 1011 MB LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CENTERED NEAR 24N65W. THE LOW IS NOW MARGINALLY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N56W TO 25N64W. THIS BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. MOST OF THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 45W-58W. A FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH ANALYZED FROM 32N58W TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 45W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN