000
AXNT20 KNHC 221154
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 1N13W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 13W...TO 6S20W AND 
8S30W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 8S36W. WARMING 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA SIX HOURS AGO.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
AND FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 52W/53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND IT 
CUTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL 
OKLAHOMA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH 
PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BROAD 
LOW PRESSURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IN NORTHEASTERN 
MEXICO...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN 
FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE 
DAYS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE COVER THE 
GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
THAT ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N66W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
IS NEAR 26N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE 1007 MB LOW 
CENTER TO 22N64W...AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA 
PASSAGE. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IS WITHIN
15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N61W 22N62W TO NORTHWESTERN 
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. OTHER 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 
50W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
DEVELOPING NEAR 29N42W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO- 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT