000
AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 6N10W 1S20W 3S30W 1S40W TO THE NORTHERN BRAZILIAN COAST 
NEAR EQ50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 
10W NEAR THE COAST OF LIBERIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 5S-8S BETWEEN 18W-20W...ALSO 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-EQ BETWEEN 43W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21Z...10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES FLORIDA AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE ENTIRE GULF. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E 
OF PUERTO RICO ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 20N65W TO 16N64W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH 
AT THIS TIME. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ONE EXTENDS 
FROM 25N63W TO 20N65W AND THEN ENTER THE CARIBBEAN REGION AS 
DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. NO CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE OTHER TROUGH HAS A LOW PRESSURE OF 1013 MB 
ASSOCIATED TO IT AND EXTENDS FROM 24N57W TO 18N57W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE N AND NW OF THIS TROUGH 
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 55W-60W. 10-20 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS ARE 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO RIDGING FROM A 1034 MB HIGH 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 40N40W. IN THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC...A 1013 MB LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED 
TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW NEAR 27N23W TO 22N27W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM FROM 27N-31N 
BETWEEN 20W-23W. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH E OF 30W N OF 23N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR...THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT E AND GENERATE MORE 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE SURFACE LOW 
NEAR IN THE E ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS