000
AXNT20 KNHC 190616
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
23W...TO 1S37W...TO 3S45W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. 
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 
20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 31W AND 51W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN
4W AND 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N 
TO THE EAST OF 100W...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TO 28N87W TO 26N92W TO THE TEXAS BORDER WITH EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA TO THE NORTH 
OF 15N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN 
SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N...AND THEN IT CURVES EASTWARD. PARTS OF
A SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND POSSIBLY 
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY 
IS ALONG 16N58W 22N59W 26N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF 
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 34N70W TO 31N73W. RAINSHOWERS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN 
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED. NO OTHER DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE INFORMATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N53W 28N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 16N58W 22N58W 26N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN
48W AND 58W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
28N27W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE CANARY 
ISLANDS AND 40W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GALE-FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 29N29W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N26W AND 28N25W. A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N25W TO 25N26W AND 23N30W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 1014 MB LOW CENTER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT