000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE IVORY COAST TO 2N10W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 12W...TO 2S29W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30NM RADIUS OF 2N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH 32N78W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 25N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N77W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 26N... INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 27N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 29N86W TOWARD THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 56W/57W FROM 14N TO 24N. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...IN THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA... WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...IN CLOUD LINES THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 17/2100 UTC NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING TO W GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N55W ALONG 19N58W TO 16N58W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 54W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N46W TO BEYOND 32N50W GENERATING BROKEN/ OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING AN AREA FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 47W-55W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N20W AND A 997 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N21W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 23N22W TO 20N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 31N BETWEEN 13W-23W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AND DISSIPATE BY MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH LATE WED. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH EARLY THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT