000
AXNT20 KNHC 161736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N30W 2N40W 1S48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-3S BETWEEN 
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-7S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 
7N-8S BETWEEN 28W-35W.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 31N83W 23N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE 
GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N92W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W.
15-20 KT NW SURFACE FLOW IS N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SE FLOW IS S 
OF THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER OVER THE SE GULF 
AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 
PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE 
S GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S 
FLORIDA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH VERY 
LITTLE PRECIPITATION 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...N COLOMBIA...AND W VENEZUELA FROM 
7N-13N BETWEEN 67W-80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ... AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N57W TO 
13N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N-20N 
BETWEEN 52W-57W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 34N58W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 
28N28W 25N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N23W 
29N22W 23N24W 18N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N55W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 51W-59W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N25W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE 
LOW. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO S FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS TO MOVE NW WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW 
TO MOVE E TO 31N23W WITH SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA