000 AXNT20 KNHC 141746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF LIBERIA AND THE IVORY COAST TO 2N10W 2N16W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS...TO THE SOUTH OF 1N6W 7N21W 5N29W 2N50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS REACHED SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE 13/1800 UTC. THE SCENARIO FOR 14/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W TO 26N75W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CURVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEATHER MAP AT 14/1500 UTC DOES NOT CONSIST OF EITHER THE STATIONARY FRONT OR THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. BOTH FEATURES HAVE DISSIPATED. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 25N72W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA NEAR HAITI/JAMAICA/CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD AND LARGE SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER HISPANIOLA AND HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N70W 26N80W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COLD FRONT HAS ITS BASE IN THE AREA OF CUBA/JAMAICA/HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 15N...CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N TO 18N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 20N64W 16N66W TO 12N70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO A 25N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N38W TO 21N40W AND 19N45W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N45W TO 19N57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT