000
AXNT20 KNHC 121712
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N5W TO 2N10W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W TO 3S30W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 5S37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 33W ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER 
THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA
TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. FROM 
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE CENTRAL-TO-EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL 
GULF...AND INTO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF 26N BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 19N93W TO 25N91W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W 27N86W
25N92W 19N95W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF RAINSHOWERS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND
82W.
  
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER HISPANIOLA
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 15N75W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND ITS SURROUNDING WATERS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 20N64W TO 16N70W TO 12N72W NEAR THE PENINSULA DE 
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE AREA NEAR ANGUILLA AND SAINT MARTIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 15N64W TO 10N65W NEAR THE VENEZUELA 
COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 24N55W TO 22N68W...PASSING BEYOND
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 32N46W. A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N46W TO 27N52W 26N66W. A SHIELD OF 
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS 
ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE CLOUDS ARE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
TO 25N58W 26N42W 24N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 
40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 29N71W TO 
NORTHWESTERN CUBA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE...TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 24N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT