000 AXNT20 KNHC 111725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N4W TO 3N10W TO 1N20W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W TO 4S38W NEAR THE BRAZIL COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N13W 4N30W 2N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...AND APPROACHING THE GULF COAST LITTLE BY LITTLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 26N TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS AT THE EDGE OF A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N91W 21N97W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI FROM 16N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 75W...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM THE PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO 12N83W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO 14N70W TO 12N72W NEAR THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W TO 14N64W TO 10N65W NEAR THE VENEZUELA COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N63W...PASSING THROUGH 20N70W AND BEYOND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 28N60W TO 23N71W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N71W TO 25N75W AND 29N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N58W TO 20N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 29N74W...TO THE NORTHWEST OF COLD FRONT AND SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N40W TO 22N56W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT