000 AXNT20 KNHC 102341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W SW ALONG 5N20W 1S30W 3S40W INT0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N83W. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...BECOMING SSE 10-20 ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 85W. WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS GULF TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY TUE..THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AS SE RETURN FLOW SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIR OVER THE A GREAT PORTION OF THE HIGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONTO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN E OF 67W. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 16N E OF 67W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N50W TO 27N62W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA ALONG 26N70W 29N75W 31N81W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. S OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N58W TO 19N59W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 53W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NE ATLC TO 20N55W. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 600 NM OF LINE FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 7N45W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA