000 AXNT20 KNHC 101735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR INT0 SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 1N21W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 3N AND FROM 6N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 11W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 48W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE AND A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SE TO S SURFACE FLOW BANKING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY TUE THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AS SE RETURN FLOW SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ALL BUT THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-15N E OF 65W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W TO 28N64W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 28N71W THEN W OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR SAVANNAH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N52W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 500/600 NM OF LINE FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 7N45W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW