000
AXNT20 KNHC 101040
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N15W 10N22W 4N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 27W CONTINUING T0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF LIBERIA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 5W-15W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4S 
BETWEEN 25W-47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL FROM 5N-1S BETWEEN 47W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF HAS 10-20 KT SE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE 
W GULF W OF 90W WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE 
FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND OVER TEXAS IN 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...N 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED E OF BERMUDA AT 32N61W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 30N63W 28N75W AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO SOUTH 
CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
29N-31N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE 
LOW TO 32N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 32N 
BETWEEN 50W-57W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 32N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 37N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
23N47W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE 
LOWS ARE CENTERED AT 34N75W... AND AT 33N53W...SUPPORTING THE W 
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO 
MOVE SE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE 
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA