000 AXNT20 KNHC 100504 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG12N15W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W CONTINUING T0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF LIBERIA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 24W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-20 KT SE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N76W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 30N70W 29N75W AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. MOST ALL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS N OF 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 31N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 26N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT 36N76W... AND AT 34N59W...SUPPORTING SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA