000 AXNT20 KNHC 092351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W SW ALONG 2N20W 1S30W 2S40W INT0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N35W TO 2N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THIS AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...BECOMING SW 10-20 ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 87W. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT FAIR OVER THE A GREAT PORTION OF THE HIGH SEAS IN THE WESTERN REGION OF THE BASIN. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE BANKING SHOWERS ONTO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN E OF 74W. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR EAST BASIN S OF 16N E OF 68W. ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY WAS FOUND IN THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WITHIN OUR DISCUSSION AREA S OF 29N IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES CROSS THE WESTERN ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 34N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER AND BARELY ENTERS OUR AREA FROM 32N67W TO 29N72W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING ESE FAIRLY QUICK...RELOCATING THE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION. ALSO...A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE AREA AS STATIONARY FROM 32N41W TO 30N51W...BECOMING WARM FROM THIS POINT AND EXITING THE REGION NEAR 32N60W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM 30N30W TO 25N53W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA