000
AXNT20 KNHC 091745
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W 
CONTINUING T0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND ALONG THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 36W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 17W-32W. ANOTHER AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N 
BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
FROM A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE NW ATLANTIC. FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS 
THE AREA. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE... ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WLY FLOW DOMINATES THIS REGION. AT THE 
SURFACE... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR 
WEATHER TODAY DUE TO DUE AIR ALOFT. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE 
ADVECTING PATCHES OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE 
STRONGEST TRADES ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND ARE 
BANKING SHOWERS ONTO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE 
COASTLINE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE  FAR W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N76W PRODUCING 
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE 
AREA ALONG 32N43W 30N52W TO 32N63W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 51W AND WITHIN 60 
NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 51W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS 
ALONG 31N40W 27N47W 25N53W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THE 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E 
OF 40W IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE 
AREA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING ROOM FOR 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE AREA N OF THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON