000 AXNT20 KNHC 082351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N7W 3N12W 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT EXCEPT W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH SE TO S WINDS W OF 86W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SHIFT E AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO LATE MON THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THEN NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING PUSHED W ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST OF THE SW CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON THROUGH WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W OF 40W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 28N45W TO 26N50W DISSIPATING ALONG 25N54W TO 21N59W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1022 MB HIGH WSW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N70W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL MOVE S TO 26N SAT AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NE WATERS LATE SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM BERMUDA ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN THROUGH MON THEN RECEDE E AS SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AND STALL TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW