000 AXNT20 KNHC 081133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 3N16W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...CURVING TOWARD THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND NEAR THE BRAZIL COAST FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N68W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W...20N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. NO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS STARTING AT 08/0000 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE RELATED TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO/REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO THAT HAVE DRIFTED TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM BARBADOS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TOWARD PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT MOST PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHEAR AXIS COVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 83W... INCLUDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA TO CUBA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE IN THE AREA OF 700 MB LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W AND 25N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N57W TO 25N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOVING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N68W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 26N28W TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N35W...AND CONTINUING TO 11N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N22W TO 17N35W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. THESE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO THAT IS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE 23N22W 17N35W SURFACE TROUGH. OTHER CLOUDS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE PAST SHEAR AXIS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO PUERTO RICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT