000 AXNT20 KNHC 080617 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 4N20W TO 3N42W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N63W...TO 30N76W TO 27N87W TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. NO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS STARTING AT 08/0000 UTC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE RELATED TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO/REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO THAT HAVE DRIFTED TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM BARBADOS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TOWARD PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT MOST PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHEAR AXIS COVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ISLANDS/LAND AREAS FROM HAITI TO JAMAICA TO CUBA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER COLOMBIA AND CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N51W AND 25N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N57W TO 25N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THESE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO THAT IS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE 25N21W 17N50W DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. OTHER CLOUDS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE PAST SHEAR AXIS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO PUERTO RICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOVING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N63W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N28W TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N36W...AND CONTINUING TO 11N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N21W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N21W TO 20N33W 18N40W AND 17N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT