000
AXNT20 KNHC 051126
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT TUE APR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST TO 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 33W...REACHING BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 
7W AND 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. JUST TO 
THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AT THE MEXICO 
COAST NEAR 20N. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES CURVING NORTHWESTWARD 
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE U.S.A. 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN 
GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W TO 26N87W 24N90W. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO 
BE WEAKENING AT THE MEXICO COAST WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 
20N97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED FROM VENEZUELA TOWARD CUBA. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IN CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WESTWARD 
WITH THE TRADEWIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE 
NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
9.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N37W TO 27N43W. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N42W TO 
23N50W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N50W TO 22N60W AND 24N70W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W
27N40W 25N47W 24N50W FOR THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE 
NORTH OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS...AROUND THE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W. THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING THE 
FOLLOWING CONDITIONS...TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE 
FRONT TO 35W...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 
25 KT...SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY 
SWELL. THE WEATHER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 50W IS...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING 
FROM 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 TO 16 FT IN 
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND 
A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH 32N23W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
26N33W...TO 20N41W AND 19N56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT