000
AXNT20 KNHC 041752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N09W 03N29W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 35W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 07W AND WITHIN 90 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 09W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO EASTERN TEXAS. 
WHILE MOST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS INLAND AND ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE OVER 
THE W ATLC WATERS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW FROM NEAR 30N70W 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO 23N95W. SOUTHERLY 
SURFACE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT IS OCCURRING ON THE 
WESTERN PERHIPERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED 
TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY 
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N72W PROVIDING 
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
E OF 72W...AND A STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS 
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG 21N TO 60W. AT 
THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A FAIRLY STATIONARY RIDGE 
LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. WITH THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT 
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING TO 23N67W...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N E 
OF 78W. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AN 
AXIS ALONG 76W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 30N70W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANY 
THE RIDGE N OF 24N W OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ALONG 50W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N55W TO 
23N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC E OF 
THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N20W. THE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N26W TO 23N50W. A 
STRONG 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER WESTERN ALGERIA NEAR 
28N07W. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES DEPICTED STRONG 
N-NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 09W-13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN