000
AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SUN APR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 5N8W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 1N20W EQ30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL 
NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FOUND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 12W...INCLUDING THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF COTE D'IVOIRE. AN AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 1S-7S BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED WEAK TO 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF 
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY STABLE AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...ESE MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN...BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY W OF 90W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME LIMITED LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF...BRINGING 
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL 
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN. THIS 
UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AT 
SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE BASIN. THIS FLOW IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA W OF 80W...DUE 
TO THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD 
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLC. THE FIRST COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W 
AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N60W TO ABOUT 23N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS 
ANALYZED ALONG 32N57W 28N64W 27N70W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE TOW FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
TRACK EAST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER E...A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR 29N34W AND 31N37W 
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA