000 AXNT20 KNHC 021137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND INTO NE BRAZIL TO NEAR 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 9W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 22W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NE QUADRANT NEAR 26N85W. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN GULF STATES. WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INCREASING TO 10 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW DOMINATES AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY DRY AIR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT REGIME OVER THE FAR SW GULF WHICH IS RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS NEAR 22N95W. WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA...SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN ALSO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THIS SAME LOCATION. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 16N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE NRN ISLANDS AS THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE N MOVES SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS NEAR THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING WWD. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH THE OCCASIONAL TRADEWIND SHOWER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE FAR W ATLC WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W CONTINUING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W AND DISSIPATING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...AND AN AREA OF STORMS IS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 73W-76W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N45W THEN CONTINUING NWD. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS ALONG 22W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CUTS INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N17W TO 27N30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON