000 AXNT20 KNHC 020547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL TO NEAR 5S50W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE LIBERIAN COAST FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 22W-33W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS FAIRLY CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH IN THE NE QUADRANT NEAR 28N87W. THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS A BROKEN LINE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF WRN CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W. WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KTS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW DOMINATES AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY DRY AIR. WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA...SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN ALSO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THIS SAME LOCATION. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 79W-82W. THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE NRN ISLANDS AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE N MOVES SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS NEAR THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NW. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH THE OCCASIONAL TRADEWIND SHOWER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE FAR W ATLC WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W CONTINUING SW TO THE NE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND DISSIPATING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS APPROACHING GEORGE TOWN NEAR 23N77W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N37W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35N49W THEN CONTINUING NWD. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS ALONG 38W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N15W TO 27N30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON