000
AXNT20 KNHC 012216
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W 
CONTINUING SW ALONG 2N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. 
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. AN AREA OF SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN GULF OVER 
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW OUT OF THE AREA. ONLY A REMNANT CLOUD 
BAND LINGERS IN THE FAR SE BASIN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. A 
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 
28N86W. THIS BENIGN SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ANTI-CYCLONIC LIGHT TO 
MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. ALSO...DRY AIR AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS 
THE AREA...LEAVING THE GULF UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT 
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR ONLY 
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. 
LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED THIS AREA FROM 13N-19N 
BETWEEN 75W-81W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
IN THIS AREA. THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION WILL BECOME NEARLY 
STATIONARY AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. MARINE OBS 
ACROSS THE BASIN INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH SURFACE FLOW FROM 
THE SE...BECOMING SSE W OF 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD 
SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE 
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THIS 
SYSTEM AND ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W CONTINUING SW 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 
27N74W 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS AREA WITHIN 25 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. 
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. 
THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N35W. 
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CUTS IN THE 
RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 27N30W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA