000 AXNT20 KNHC 011102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 3N14W 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 10W-23W...FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-38W...AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US CONUS TO OVER THE FAR NW ATLC AND INTO THE GULF N OF 22N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST N OF WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES THEN ALONG 25N83W TO 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS N AND W OF THE FRONT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VENZUELA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 13N AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE ONCE AGAIN GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-78W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE W ATLC. FRESH SE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 993 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST N OF WEST PALM BEACH. A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N74W OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE FRONT TO THE US COAST CLEARING THE SKIES TO THE W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W TO 29N33W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N40W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W AND IS SPLIT BY THE E ATLC FRONT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N39W AND A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 26N34W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS S OF 25N W OF 30W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE W OF BAHAMAS WHILE E PORTION MOVES SE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING ILL DEFINED ON MON. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NW ATLC SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN MOVE SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT SLIDES E ALONG 30N SUN AND MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW