000 AXNT20 KNHC 010550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 2N19W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 8W-19W...FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-37W... AND S OF 3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US CONUS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF N OF 22N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH S OF TAMPA TO 25N86W THEN DISSIPATES TO 23N89W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF OF FLORIDA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE FRONT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VENZUELA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE ALL BUT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DRIFTED E OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF 17N. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 74W-78W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE WINDS WILL RELAX SOME OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN THEN INCREASE AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US CONUS TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 997 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 28N78W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W TO 29N36W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N42W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SPLIT BY THE E ATLC FRONT WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N45W AND A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N32W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS S OF 25N E OF 30W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA LATE FRI THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM 27N65W TO SE CUBA SAT NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NE WATERS SAT NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N SUN AND MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW