000
AXNT20 KNHC 311804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W
TO 1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 10W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH 
IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT SUPPORTS 
THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A COLD FRONT ENDS NEAR 31N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N76W...CUTTING ACROSS 
NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING 
WATERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 
84W...IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WITH THE SURFACE 
TRADEWIND FLOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA IN GENERAL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N34W TO 32N32W. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N40W TO 31N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO
29N50W TO 27N57W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N52W.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY A DEFINITE CLOUD LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N44W TO 27N52W TO 28N59W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLOUD LINE. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N23W TO 26N32W TO 24N43W TO 23N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N16W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 26N17W TO 20N22 TO 18N27W. NO PRECIPITATION IS 
APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT