000 AXNT20 KNHC 311038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 3N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD GIVING THE GULF WATERS MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE TWO FEATURES AT 31/0900 UTC ARE SUPPORTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO A DEEPENING 1004 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W CONTINUING ALONG 25N91W TO 22N94W WHERE IT DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST OF S MEXICO AT THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REGENERATED IN A BAND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WHERE SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF FOG ARE W OF THIS LINE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND FAR E TEXAS. THE AREA E OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AND WILL REACH FROM 28N83W TO 22N90W EARLY FRI THEN OUT OF GULF LATE FRI. SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE GULF LATE FRI MOVING E OF AREA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL GULF FRI THEN SHIFTS E OVER FLORIDA SAT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS GULF THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR S CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-79W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE OF AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING AT 31/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N76W TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-51W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC W OF 30W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W SW TO 27N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N63W THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W AND TO THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N41W TO 27N46W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N64W TO 19N67W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 58W-70W. A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC NEAR 28N21W AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SPAIN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N39W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. S TO SW SURFACE FLOW TO NEAR GALE FORCE IS OFF N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH FRI. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO FLORIDA KEYS EARLY FRI THEN REACH FROM 30N65W TO SE BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AS REINFORCING COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN FROM THE NW. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND SHIFT E OF AREA EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW