000 AXNT20 KNHC 301047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 5N17W 2N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 6W-22W AND TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER TO OVER ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING AT 30/0900 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO OVER THE SE CONUS BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH...DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT...IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FORM 29N93W TO 25N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE N GULF COAST ALONG 84W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 90W LEAVING ONLY THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT IS MOVING N OF THE AREA AND WILL BE COMPLETELY INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU THEN EXIT THE GULF EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N65W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N63W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W-65W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY THROUGH THU AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING E. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS JUST N OF AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 55W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W SW TO 28N66W WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N53W ALONG 27N63W TO NEAR 26N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 15N65W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 62W-65W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N23W AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE NE ATLC BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 26N39W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N59W. MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY S TO SW SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT AND REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY FRI THEN FROM BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW