000 AXNT20 KNHC 300559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N18W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 6.5N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS TO OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE CONUS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI... LOUISIANA AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND SE LOUISIANA. AT 30/0300 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THEN SE TO 28N87W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-28N E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE N GULF COAST ALONG 87W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 89W LEAVING ONLY THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU THEN EXIT THE GULF EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-65W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA HAVE MOVED W COVERING PORTIONS OF HAITI FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY THROUGH THU AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING E. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS JUST N OF AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N OF THE REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 28N57W TO BEYOND 32N44W. AT 30/0300 UTC A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO FORT LAUDERDALE INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N74W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO NEAR 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC FROM NEAR 21N62W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 13N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W-65W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N23W AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE NE ATLC BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 24N45W TO 25N60W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW