000
AXNT20 KNHC 300001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N13W 03N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 30W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 19W-25W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 4S-3N 
BETWEEN 30W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED ALOFT OVER THE 
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT IS CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDING WESTWARD    
INTO THE NE GULF WATERS ALONG 27N83W 28N86W 28N90W...A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FOLLOWS WESTWARD TO TEXAS SE 
COASTLINE NEAR 29N95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SHOWERS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 
85W-88W...LIGHTNING DATA DETECT POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS SMALL REGION OF THE GULF. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY SOUTHERLY 
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
ALOFT. EXPECT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE WHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF 
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SURFACE TROUGH 
ANALYZED FROM 13N63W TO 21N61W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS 
WEAKNESS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL 
ATLC RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF 
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN NORTH ATLC SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS WEAKNESS 
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N63W SW TO 29N73W TO THE CENTRAL 
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. AT THE MOMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N63W 27N72W TO 
26N80W...FEW TO NONE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH.    
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 33N25W. IN 24 HOURS THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP 
INFLUENCING THE SURFACE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

RAMOS