000 AXNT20 KNHC 290533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N18W 1N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 26N86W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT 29/0300 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 30N82W CONTINUING ALONG THE PANHANDLE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA TO JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THEN SW ALONG 28N86W TO 27N90W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 27N95W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N E OF 87W TO OVER S FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-29N E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 24N W OF 89W LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED EXTENDING FROM NW FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT BY LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE EXTREME S CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-84W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS MAINLY S OF GUADELOUPE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT AT 29/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N74W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N TO THE FRONT W OF 74W ACROSS THE FLORIA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 26N49W TO 26N71W BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION IS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 18N58W TO 11N59W WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASE WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH REACH THE W ATLC THU NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW