000 AXNT20 KNHC 280540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 3N21W 1N32W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 26W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN AXIS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SE LOUISIANA. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO AND MOST OF THE GULF. AT 28/0300 UTC A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DIP S OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA N OF NEW ORLEANS CONTINUING SW ALONG THE COAST FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BEFORE EXTENDING W ACROSS S TEXAS TO A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DEL RIO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CONVECTION INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING ALONG 86W BETWEEN 26N-29N WITH SCATTERED/ HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OVER THE NW GULF IS DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 88W. A 1000 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N W OF 93W. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S INTO THE N GULF THROUGH MON AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS ON TUE AND WED ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE N OF AREA AS WARM FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDING AN AXIS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. PERSISTENT MODERATE/ FRESH SE BREEZE REMAIN OVER NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT S OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N71W ALONG 31N76W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N29W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 25N54W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W BEFORE WEAKENING OVER S FLORIDA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 13N51W TO 9N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N WILL SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW ATLC WILL DRIFT S THROUGH TODAY EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA EARLY TUE THEN STALLING LATE TUE. FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N AS WARM FRONT WED AND THU AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW