000 AXNT20 KNHC 272317 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 06N10W TO 04N20W TO 02N30W TO 01N40W TO NE BRAZIL AT EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 28W-42W...AND FROM 03S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM N FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS. PRE-FRONTAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-88W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. THE S GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND SPREADING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 06N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 70W-78W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF E PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-62W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD S OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S OF 12N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1005 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N70W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N50W TO 09N53W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT S AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA