000 AXNT20 KNHC 271050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 2N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 28W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO OVER THE SE CONUS JUST E OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND MOST OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE FAR SE GULF WATERS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OVER THE W ATLC AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER SE CONUS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN JUST INLAND FROM OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SE TEXAS. THE S TO SW SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S TO W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS THEN DISSIPATE BY MON. RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N73W THEN S TO CENTRAL PANAMA WHILE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N W OF 80W THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS DOMINATING THE TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N29W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO S FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N WILL SHIFT E TODAY IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH S INTO FAR W ATLC ON MON REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO DAYTONA BEACH MON NIGHT THEN STALL FROM NEAR 32N55W TO S FLORIDA LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW