000 AXNT20 KNHC 261733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N11W 03N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N FROM THE W ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATING. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ALONG 30N AND THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE ON MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM 04N49W W-NW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. SW FLOW ALOFT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 77W. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED EAST-WEST ALONG 24N VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W...LEADING TO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N46W AND TRAILS SW TO 29N56W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. THE FRONT IS QUICKLY BECOMING MORE AND MORE DIFFUSE AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 25N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N38W TO 29N34W AND IS ALSO QUICKLY LOSING IDENTITY WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N27W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO A 1020 MB NEAR 25N54W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 24N AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN