000 AXNT20 KNHC 251751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W 02N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG 02S37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 11W-17W... AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER. A VERY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF FROM THE ORLANDO AREA WESTWARD TO 28N86W THEN INLAND ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A RESULTANT DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR VERY CLEAR SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE MAINLY W OF 90W WITH THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ALONG 30N AND THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE BY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM 04N45W W-NW TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W. SW FLOW ALOFT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N68W TO 13N82W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 84W-88W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 50W...LEADING TO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N58W AND TRAILS SW TO 30N66W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILS W-SW FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 28N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY INACTIVE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N W OF 73W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 23N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED SOUTHWARD TO 20N34W THEN CONTINUING AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE TO 15N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES AND WITHIN 60 NM NW OF A LINE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N30W. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N39W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO 23N50W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 23N AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN