000 AXNT20 KNHC 251047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER E BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 9W-20W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-31W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N W OF 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE E GULF IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE W GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE FAR NW GULF. AS OF 25/0900 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO S OF CEDAR KEY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 29N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT REMAINS VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N90W TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N91W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE N/CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE W GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 91W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COMBINING WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS SE GULF IS RESULTING IN INCREASING S RETURN FLOW OVER GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE DEVELOPING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 16N E OF 81W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT AS THE W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S. TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 57W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N60W 31N67W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N73W AND AT 25/0900 UTC A WEAKER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF THE 1008 MB LOW. A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW IS ALONG THE N/CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AT 25/0900 UTC. IN THE E ATLC IS A 1018 MB LOW NEAR NEAR 25N33W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 27N28W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N34W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS WITH A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 31N24W AND 26N41W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE E ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGHS BUT IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. W ATLC FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW