000 AXNT20 KNHC 240537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 20W TO 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF FORCING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY WESTERLY NORTH OF 26N AND EASTERLY SOUTH OF 26N...THIS EVENING. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT AND EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SPARSE WITH THE SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE CAROLINAS. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE RIDGING WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF WILL HAVE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP NOR WILL THERE BE MUCH COOL AIR ADVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODEST 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS IS PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS RESULTING IN 15-25 KT TRADEWIND EASTERLIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF COLUMBIA ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY...AS IS TYPICALLY SEEN. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH THERE LIKELY ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONGLY SUBSIDENT ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES. DURING THE NEXT DAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MODEST 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB CENTERED AT 32N32W. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO 29N57W TO 32N47W. NORTH OF 30N WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE FRONT...SW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N35W WITH STATIONARY FRONTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTH TO 19N38W AND NORTHEAST TO 32N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. SURFACE WINDS...ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT...ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE SW FLOW WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES E OF NE FLORIDA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO 23N51W TO 18N60W. A SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED AT 8N32W ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH SOUTHWARD...AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. LIKEWISE THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS WELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA