000
AXNT20 KNHC 232322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 
17W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 
22W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
BRAZIL FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 40W-45W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 2019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N70W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO S TEXAS AT 28N96W. 
10-15 KT SE TO S RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS MOVING E. THIS 
FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
85W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA INHIBITING 
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS ALONG 28N. ALSO EXPECT THE GULF S OF 28N TO 
HAVE CONTINUED SE SURFACE FLOW.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA...AND OVER JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW 
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION.  
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS AT 25N70W MOVING E. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO 30N56W TO 
30N60W TO 31N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO 45W. A 
1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N34W. A 
1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER S NEAR 24N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE 
FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 25N25W MOVING NE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 50W WITH 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 7N33W. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR...A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OFF THE COAST OF NE 
FLORIDA...FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS...AND FOR THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND COLD FRONT TO DRIFT W 
WITH SHOWERS.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA