000
AXNT20 KNHC 231039
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N20W 1N30W 1S40W INTO BRAZIL 
ALONG 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL 
REMOVED S OF THE AXIS FROM 5S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W AND 
27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE AXIS 
E OF 18W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
MORNING...EXTENDING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE TO 
SW. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. 
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW 
ELSEWHERE W OF 85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE I 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES GENERATING SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING THE 
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 14N E OF 65W. 
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE ENE 
FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN 
WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN AFFECTING THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND EASTERN PANAMA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE ATLC IS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N29W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N35W. THIS SYSTEM IS 
LOOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH/LOW MOVES N 
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC PROVIDED BY SURFACE RIDGING 
OVER THE AREA...GIVEN BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 
26N74W...ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
27N48W...AND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 27N25W. OVER 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IN THE W ATLC WILL SWING ACROSS OUR 32N BORDERLINE W OF 53W 
WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING 
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FG