000 AXNT20 KNHC 230538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N20W 1N30W 1S40W INTO SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED S OF THE AXIS FROM 7S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W AND 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A 1019 MB HIGH OFF THE TAMPA BAY AREA FLORIDA NEAR 27N83W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ELSEWHERE W OF 85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE I THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 14N E OF 65W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE ENE FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND EASTERN PANAMA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE ATLC IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N31W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N35W. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH/LOW MOVES N ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC PROVIDED BY SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...GIVEN BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N74W...ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N48W...AND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 26N25W. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE W ATLC WILL CROSS OUR 32N BORDERLINE W OF 53W WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA