000 AXNT20 KNHC 221731 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...CORRECTION FOR ISSUANCE TIME... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N8W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-44W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 13W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO AND E TEXAS TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N87W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 1021 MB HIGH IN THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT E OF THE GULF LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NE WINDS ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA E OF THE ABOVE LINE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS BEING GENERATED BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS TO PRODUCE STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST E OF 74W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY N OF 15N AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 78W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N76W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 30W SUPPORTING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG 22N45W TO 20N55W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 20N54W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR 21N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N35W ALONG 24N36W TO 15N43W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE 1023 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES JUST N OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW