000 AXNT20 KNHC 192333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W EQ30W 2N40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON... SUPPORTING A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE HIGH PRES CENTER... WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS S OF 28N AND SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW W OF 92W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN HAITI TO NEAR 15N78W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FOUND WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THE OVERALL FLOW IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA COASTS. ALSO...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM GRENADA TO GUADELOUPE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WEST ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N77W PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 60W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE REFLECTION LOW NEAR 26N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N53W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE CENTER TO NEAR 24N46W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-31N BETWEEN 43W-53W. AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS N OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N54W TO 13N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N W OF 58W AFFECTING MAINLY THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA