000 AXNT20 KNHC 181744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 1N30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SSE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON... SUPPORTING A 1027 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST NEAR 30N86W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROAMS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT SURFACE...SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-75W. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAXIMA IS FOUND IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THE OVERALL FLOW IS PUSHING ISOLATED SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA COASTS. THE SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WEST ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 30N77W PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 66W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N61W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 34N61W 31N63W 27N65W. TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N63W TO 22N65W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-62W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS AROUND 25N53W WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N26W TO 25N30W TO 21N40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WESTWARD TO 22N48W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA