000
AXNT20 KNHC 161724
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W 
ALONG 1N20W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 
4N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-6N BETWEEN 14W AND 24W... FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W... 
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE 
NE GULF SUPPORTING AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT 
IS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 31N83W 28N86W 26N89W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF 
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION. AT THE 
SURFACE...SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT 
AREAS SW OF HAITI FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W AND S OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 66W AND 
73W. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SHOWERS FOR BELIZE... GUATEMALA... 
WESTERN HONDURAS... AND WESTERN PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING 
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR REGION FROM 32N77W TO 28N79W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 57W WITH A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS N OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 37N42W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ENTERING OUR 
REGION NEAR 34N44W BECOMING DISSIPATING NEAR 30N48W TO 29N53W 
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N57W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TO 
THE S OF THIS SYSTEM LAY A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 48W FROM 16N-25N. THE SECOND TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG 54W FROM 14N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
80-130 NM E OF EACH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 44W IS DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 34N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/GARCIA