000
AXNT20 KNHC 161100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N6W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S26W TO 3S31W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 7S38W. SCATTERED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 17W
AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AREA...AND IN THE WATERS THAT 
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE 
BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N 
TO THE WEST OF 60W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N49W TO 30N54W 29N57W 27N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS ALONG
28N55W 26N57W 23N58W. A SHEAR AXIS THAT IS ALONG 21N47W 24N49W
26N54W SEPARATES ONE AREA OF WINDS WITH SPEEDS THAT RANGE FROM 
15 KNOTS TO 20 KTS TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS FROM AN AREA OF WINDS
WITH SPEEDS THAT RANGE FROM 5 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS TO THE WEST OF 
THE AXIS. BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
SHOWS UP IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD IS ALONG 20N52W
16N56W. A SECOND SUCH TROUGH IS ALONG 16N52W 13N56W. CLUSTERS
OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N44W 29N47W 28N52W 26N56W
24N59W 22N63W...FROM 17N TO 24N WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
47W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 35N7W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 30N20W TO 20N30W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N28W TO 10N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT