000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N6W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S26W TO 3S31W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 7S38W. SCATTERED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 17W
AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI TO 
THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO 27N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AREA...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE 
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE 
SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N56W TO A 1018 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N58W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 
53W/54W FROM 14N TO 20N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 
60W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 36N9W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 28N13W TO 20N27W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES 
AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 32N29W TO 20N30W TO 9N31W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT