000
AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...
TO 3S25W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S35W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-14W. A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 245 NM S OF THE ITCZ ALONG THE 14W 
MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIE 
FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR 250 NM E OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF ALONG 
31N86W 28N90W 26N95W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.  
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF 
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 87W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NO 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 
ALONG 29N85W 27N88W 25N87W...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS 
TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH LIES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 23N92W TO 
20N93W...HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. E OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ASSOCIATED 
WITH RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.       

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRESENTLY THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND 
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH IS BRINGING 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 
10-20 KT ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION 
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MID AND EASTERN 
ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 6N TO 25N WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS TO THESE REGIONS OF THE BASIN. W OF 55W THE REMNANTS 
OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...NO SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 
10-20 KT IS AT EITHER W OR E OF THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A STATIONARY FRONT TO ENTER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC BRINGING SOME SHOWERS WITH IT.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/FG